the coming global energy crisis

Everyone is bracing themselves for the impact of global warming, but no one seems to notice a potentially greater and more imminent threat to mankind: the end of cheap and plentiful fossil fuel supplies. The impact of this will literally bring the modern world to its knees within the next 10 years, affecting our ability to manufacture, transport and particularly, grow food enough to feed a population set to rise to 9.5bn by 2050.

For those not familiar with the concept of Peak Oil or Energy Decline, there are a number of important links at the end of this article. Many more will be found through a search on Google; a quick summary, as I observe things, is given here.

Global oil discoveries and usage follow a bell-shaped pattern described as “Hubbert's Curve” (right) and historic patterns and current data show that we reached the mid-point of global oil reserves around 2005. That means that we are now in an irreversible process of decline in terms of available energy. We may have another half left to go, but the first half was easy and cheap to extract and refine, the remaining half gets harder to extract, of lesser quality and so more expensive to produce. Add in growing global demand as countries such as China and India industrialize, plus the aforementioned growth in population and it is clear that demand will soon vastly outstrip supply. As all modern economies are based on debt and growth, which in turn is based upon cheap and unlimited energy, then you can see that global economic collapse is staring us in the face, and it's going to happen soon.

Our world seems so sophisticated, dependable and so LARGE, solid and indestructible, but the reality is quite the reverse. Our economies are based upon vast debts serviced by perpetual growth and promise of future return. If that growth stops, so does the belief in the wellbeing and systems start shutting down. What happens when hauliers cannot afford diesel and can't ship food and goods to market? Will any economy still be viable when oil hits $200 a barrel? Farmers (already struggling to be profitable) are heavily dependant upon fossil fuel to produce food, so what if they can no longer afford the energy or fertiliser that they need? Supermarkets in the UK hold just three days worth of food and goods - “just in time” supply - but a week with no transport system would see us in crisis with potentially very nasty consequences. The UK carries enough gas reserves to last about four days. If Russia cut off its gas supplies to Europe for political reasons, or more likely because it realises that it has to retain what it has left for its own consumption, we would be in instant crisis. Opec will not be able to increase supply and is almost certainly hiding the fact that it's at full capacity with its major oilfields in decline.

Now think of Iraq and the current US posturing on Iran and tell me it's not oil-related. While the US has 5% of the world population, it consumes 25% of the worlds energy and has a annual military budget of over $500bn - almost as big as the rest of the world put together (47% of global military expenditure)! Once scarcity kicks in, muscle is likely to decide who gets the last remaining drops. The sad thing is, we should be using these last days to pursue solutions that cut requirements and develop sound alternative energy sources. We could stabilize our population, end starvation and illness, clean up our emissions and build a secure future for less than we spend on defense each year.

solutions

I was inspired today by a book on Greek vegetarian cooking. In this book it described such simple things, that we have all but forgotten about in our rush for a “better” life. Closeness to the land and the seasons, local foods, often wild or home produced, purity and quality of life and of time, which a modern lifestyle seldom allows us to experience. Such societies will find their life less affected than most when the oil runs out, for they have always grappled with the problems of the soil, water and food. They have lived a life within the means of the land which has supported them for untold generations, whilst all about, civilisations have come and gone. Let us hope that the legacy of global warming that we leave behind does not wipe out those who still remain close to the land, such as in the Mediterranean regions. The one good outcome of energy decline may be that it lessens the effects of global warming.

I think that a move back to a simpler, harder life that is concerned with the land and the production of local energy and food is inevitable and has many good things to recommend it. Closer communities, where people need each other and help each other, could be one result. Technology seems to make us independent of anyone and as a result the social fabric that binds us is unraveling. Each generation seems more disconnected, more alien than the last and humans are forgetting how to be human. Talking is not an option if you can txt a few shrt wrds.

This brings us right back to gardens, landscape and food. Suddenly, the bit of land in your control, or to which you have access, becomes very important indeed. Everyone will want security, in terms of food and energy (which are both the same thing) and gardens can grow food, as they always used to! The picture at right shows intensive raised beds in Havana, Cuba and this is a good place to study to see how a society can adapt to living with little or no oil. Cuba was and is under a US embargo, meaning very little trade happens with the outside world. The old Soviet empire was the main support and when the USSR collapsed, so did Cuban oil supplies. They had to learn very quickly how to revert to traditional, local organic growing methods to feed themselves and every spare bit of land in Havana now grows vegetables. As a consequence, diet improved and social cohesion increased, proving that good things may arise from a major crisis. Local solutions create local communities and local economies create local security.

Personally, I don't believe that world leaders will get it together to do the right things on our behalf. I believe it's down to us to sort it out for ourselves. There's a lot going on in the world, quietly, unnoticed by the masses, dismissed perhaps as cranky. A lot of these ideas and the people that are trying them out might turn out to be our local saviors, people who already have thought this out and got their own act together. One thing's for sure, we can't all do it on our own. We can't be defensive, run for the hills and reach for a shotgun (though some will)... we will need to help each other to transcend the challenges ahead and to reap the rewards of a simple, more connected lifestyle. And believe you me, your garden is going to be right at the core of it all...